I would expect that net exports of crude oil would drop more quickly than total production. Your numbers indicate that this is happening very quickly. I haven't stopped to verify that I would get exactly the same numbers, but I would expect something in this direction to happen.
It is tricky to get consumption of crude oil, because the only numbers that are available for consumption relate to "liquids." These include all of the stuff that isn't quite oil. Or perhaps it is possible to work around this issue.
Thank you for your comment. I have read your work since I can remember. Big Fan.
The numbers for 2018 come from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 spreadsheet. Simply subtacted consumption from production for each OPEC country and then added them up. Happy to send spreadsheet for you to review. 2022 estimated from OPEC Monthly Oil Report for January, 2023.
I will edit the post to clarify what Oil and Liquids mean. Here are the definitions:
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy: * Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining) and NGLs (natural gas liquids - ethane, LPG and naphtha separated from the production of natural gas).
Excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas. This also excludes liquid fuel adjustment factors such as refinery processing gain. Excludes oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form.
The OPEC Monthly Oil Report for January includes Liquids, including refinery processing gain, NGL's, and Non Conventional Liquids. The misalignment is smaller by my estimation than the adjustments that get made to the totals over time, so I felt confident in using it.
I would expect that net exports of crude oil would drop more quickly than total production. Your numbers indicate that this is happening very quickly. I haven't stopped to verify that I would get exactly the same numbers, but I would expect something in this direction to happen.
It is tricky to get consumption of crude oil, because the only numbers that are available for consumption relate to "liquids." These include all of the stuff that isn't quite oil. Or perhaps it is possible to work around this issue.
Thanks for your insights!
Thank you for your comment. I have read your work since I can remember. Big Fan.
The numbers for 2018 come from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 spreadsheet. Simply subtacted consumption from production for each OPEC country and then added them up. Happy to send spreadsheet for you to review. 2022 estimated from OPEC Monthly Oil Report for January, 2023.
I will edit the post to clarify what Oil and Liquids mean. Here are the definitions:
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy: * Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining) and NGLs (natural gas liquids - ethane, LPG and naphtha separated from the production of natural gas).
Excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas. This also excludes liquid fuel adjustment factors such as refinery processing gain. Excludes oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form.
The OPEC Monthly Oil Report for January includes Liquids, including refinery processing gain, NGL's, and Non Conventional Liquids. The misalignment is smaller by my estimation than the adjustments that get made to the totals over time, so I felt confident in using it.
Thanks again for commenting Gail.
I expect that the big misalignment would be on US indications, rather than indications for OPEC countries or Russia.
The US has been ramping up natural gas liquids. These are not worth much, but they make US "liquids" production look high, relative to its production.
If you want to email me your spreadsheet, that would be fine. You have my email address, I believe. Thanks for your offer.