Peak Oil Happened. The fiat money gods are taking final profits and closing up shop.
If continuing debt service requires increasing energy supply, what would you do?
There will be no pivot. Here and here explain why. In one picture:
Peak Oil happened. It is now a historical fact. As the graph above shows, the total amount of oil available from all exporters together peaked in 2005 and began declining in 2019, before the pandemic.
The bubble of US fracking temporarily delayed the decline, but fracking has now plateaued and the entire industry keeps saying they cannot increase production because they now have to make money.
Therefore, the increase in the amount of energy available to the importing nations as a whole has begun to decline.
(If you want to argue against production and consumption facts, Katherine Watt published a passionate argument against the reality of peak oil, with lots of supporting comments. I posted my response in the comments section of her article.)
My posts so far explore the thesis that debt service requires growing GDP, which requires an increasing - amount - of energy. Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will of the Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, part of the German Military put it this way in 2010:
“The developments shown here make it clear that it is essential to secure the supply of energy to the economic cycle - in - sufficient - quantities - to enable positive economic growth. A contraction in economic activity over an indefinite period of time represents a highly unstable state that will cause the system to collapse. It is hardly possible to estimate the security risks that such a development would involve.”
“Psychological barriers cause indisputable facts to be blanked out and lead to almost instinctively refusing to look into this difficult subject in detail
Peak oil, however, is unavoidable.”
Easily verifyable statistics confirm that the - amount - of energy available to the importing countries as a whole peaked in 2005, and began to decline in 2019 . Unless that reverses, which looks unlilkely, continuing debt service by the importing nations as a whole will come to a halt pretty quickly.
If you owned the fiat money creation and lending business, what would you do?
It really is just this simple. Do you think that all central banks in the world, with all of their experts and paid analysis, - completely - missed - the - peaking - and - now -decline - of - energy- to - all - importing - countries?
The German Miliary noticed. The Pentagon noticed. The British Military noticed (p7). So did more that 20 government studies from around the world.
Remember, that their entire business depends on an increasing - amount - of energy. You think they completely missed that? Didn’t notice?
Many keep saying that the Fed will pivot - because - otherwise everything will break down.
The Fed will not pivot - because - they are breaking everything - on - purpose.
There will be no pivot. They are ‘calling’ all loans and will soon begin to collect the collateral pledged on non-performing loans. Good luck with that.
Take whatever time you need to squarely face reality. Deal with your emotions, get calm. Take action.
I started posting on substack about oil by creating and using the stats for Total Purchasable Oil in order to try and clarify what the export land model means for the citizens of the importing countries. Stunning what Saudi just announced.
There is an element to peak oil that is nearly always left out of the analysis, it was called Export Land Model ( ELM ).
The basic concept is that as a producing nation becomes enriched from exporting they consume more and more of their own production. This was a revelation at the time because everyone was just looking primarily at production and domestic consumption was not showing up there. This obviously speeds up peak oil. At the time I pointed out that this applied to non FF producing countries too who were developing and growing their economies and increasing their energy consumption accordingly. It applies to every one of the worlds finite natural resources and I include human labor in that too.
Then it became clear that what was being described was the motive behind US foreign policy over the last 100 years or so and we should be careful how we go about talking about this.
I have spent the last 15 years or so researching this and it is clear that the US and its minions have successfully suppressed growth through several dozen mechanisms for over 80% of the population of the planet. This has been a very bloody and destructive process and it is still ongoing. I usually refer to it as Demand Destruction and I fully agree with you that it is going on in the developed world too.
It is important to understand this in context with the current geopolitical crisis such as Ukraine, Russia, China, the Middle East, Eurasia, etc. The US has everything to lose if it does not come out on top again this time and I mean everything.
Would love to talk more.
Cheers! jef